Here it is, as promised a couple of weeks ago though it seems eons ago to me..they didnt tell me how tertiary life could be so hectic and all..read a very interesting article about the difference between top students and the Average Joe..urhh..digressing again!
Expectation plays a critical role in the financial world supporting your basic fundamentals with number crunching...even in my Economic class, i learned that the E subscript e, i.e. expectations, play a key mathematical role by being part of the equation for the determing the currency exchange..you may go..'Hey, so expectations play a part in my FX trades!' well, yah it is everywhere not only in the financial markets. Including your parents, external family members', friends, professors' Great Expectations of you...tell me about it!
So basically, the jizz of it all is such that if the market expect stock A's revenue to increase by 5% while the actual results is 8%, the share price would appreciate. On the other hand, if the posted revenue increased by only 2%, the share price would fall. In restropect, if the market expects stock B's revenue to decrease by 10% while the actual decrease was only 4%, the share price would increase. As such, if you are gonna tell me that if the revenue actually decrease by more than 10% the share price would drop you basically got the hang of it!
Market sentiments is very important esp with regards to expectations. As long as humans exist, there will exist -- the herd mentality.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Friday, March 9, 2007
Market Crash
ahhh...well, finally here am i back to blogspot. okay, i admit i am an IT idiot just in case you were wondering where i have been after coming with a post that says the correction will not be anywhere soon and BOOM! the market crashes on the 27th and 28th of February
I was trying to log in all these while, thinking i am under the old blogger sign-in and trying to rem my username and password. darn! the username was correct but the password wasnt.. however i remembered my password to be ABCDEFG..try as i may, i was wondering why the emails that i requested to be sent to my email account wasnt received..I sms-ed my 'brother' and he was lost..so was i..lost in the secrecy of many usernames and accounts. never in the world did i realise that the username is ur password!?!? goSh!
Alright..so here i am..finally logged in after a 2week desperation attempt at my 1st blog account..
i had actually wanted to log in the next day to write more where i left off -- expectations. Since there was a global equity crisis, or the correction, we shall now examine the issue.
As you all know, the global 'crash' began with a 9% drop in China, followed by a 400+ point drop in the DowJones. Then began the domino effect where almost every market in the world was equally affected. Indexes around the world dropped and there you go! weak in the knees.
Many believed the catalyst was to our dear Mr Greenspan mentioned the 'R' word..To top it off, it is 'highly prossible but not probable' to put it in his words. And the lastest development is that is now 1/3 likely that the US may face a recession. that figure converts to a numerical 66.67%. Now, Mr G is usually humble and doesnt blurt out unnecessary info..besides, you he is a numbers person which means all the more we gotta tread carefully in the weeks ahead and months to come.
CNY festivities seemed to have put everyone in a bouyant mood last week while this week the dreaded correction has cast a cloud of gloom over most ppl (who invested that is) & seeing everyone counting their losses does have its effect. After all almost everyone you know is affected and greeting revolve around another cycle about bitching about the US, Iran, Shanghai and Greenspan. Its almost depressive. With the effect extending towards other things.
A few others i know also took the opportunity to buy in during the dip. There's where you make money. Buy low, Sell high ( i am sure you have heard this zillion times over). This rebound...is it sustainable? It seems to be a good tiding amidst a sea of confusion..but i am in a dilemma.
why so? here goes...
1. buy in dips. true, the market has rebounded back but it could be set for a greater correction at 30% off to about 2300 points in the STI. risky isnt it?
2. use the wait-and-see strategy (so called the best strategy right now). If things are rougher, time to buy. If not, miss the opportunity, when we could, to buy it cheap during the dip. Obviously, we have to pay more as the bull continues to run...
sighss....
ah well...back to my project
I was trying to log in all these while, thinking i am under the old blogger sign-in and trying to rem my username and password. darn! the username was correct but the password wasnt.. however i remembered my password to be ABCDEFG..try as i may, i was wondering why the emails that i requested to be sent to my email account wasnt received..I sms-ed my 'brother' and he was lost..so was i..lost in the secrecy of many usernames and accounts. never in the world did i realise that the username is ur password!?!? goSh!
Alright..so here i am..finally logged in after a 2week desperation attempt at my 1st blog account..
i had actually wanted to log in the next day to write more where i left off -- expectations. Since there was a global equity crisis, or the correction, we shall now examine the issue.
As you all know, the global 'crash' began with a 9% drop in China, followed by a 400+ point drop in the DowJones. Then began the domino effect where almost every market in the world was equally affected. Indexes around the world dropped and there you go! weak in the knees.
Many believed the catalyst was to our dear Mr Greenspan mentioned the 'R' word..To top it off, it is 'highly prossible but not probable' to put it in his words. And the lastest development is that is now 1/3 likely that the US may face a recession. that figure converts to a numerical 66.67%. Now, Mr G is usually humble and doesnt blurt out unnecessary info..besides, you he is a numbers person which means all the more we gotta tread carefully in the weeks ahead and months to come.
CNY festivities seemed to have put everyone in a bouyant mood last week while this week the dreaded correction has cast a cloud of gloom over most ppl (who invested that is) & seeing everyone counting their losses does have its effect. After all almost everyone you know is affected and greeting revolve around another cycle about bitching about the US, Iran, Shanghai and Greenspan. Its almost depressive. With the effect extending towards other things.
A few others i know also took the opportunity to buy in during the dip. There's where you make money. Buy low, Sell high ( i am sure you have heard this zillion times over). This rebound...is it sustainable? It seems to be a good tiding amidst a sea of confusion..but i am in a dilemma.
why so? here goes...
1. buy in dips. true, the market has rebounded back but it could be set for a greater correction at 30% off to about 2300 points in the STI. risky isnt it?
2. use the wait-and-see strategy (so called the best strategy right now). If things are rougher, time to buy. If not, miss the opportunity, when we could, to buy it cheap during the dip. Obviously, we have to pay more as the bull continues to run...
sighss....
ah well...back to my project
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